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For the first time, a causal link has been established between climate(气候) change and the timing of a natural event-the appearance of the common brown butterfly.

Although there have been strong connections between global warming and changes in the timing of events such as animal migration and flowering, it has been hard to show a cause-and-effect link. This is what Michael Kearney and Natalie Briscoe of the University of Melbourne, Australia, have now done.

The researchers compared temperature changes in Melbourne-where the butterfly is common-with recorded observations of the first brown butterfly to be seen in the spring since the 1940s.With each of the past ten years, the butterflies appeared 1.6 days earlier and Melbourne heated by 0.14℃. Overall, the butterfly now appears on average 10.4 days before it did in the 1940s.

The pair are confident in the relationship for two reasons. First, they placed eggs of the butterfly, in special boxes where temperature could be controlled and found that each larval stage had a different response to warmer-than-normal conditions. The egg, which is laid in late summer, and the first larval stage do well at high temperatures, says Kearney. The second to the fifth stages occur in winter and can't survive high temperatures. The knock- on effect is that the larval pupates earlier and the butterfly appears sooner. Second, they made a mathematical model combining these physiological effects of temperature on development with climate data. The model precisely matched the observed changes in butterfly emergence date.

The researchers used several climate models to find out what is likely to have caused the rise in Melbourne's temperature, and ruled out the possibility that natural weather events could account for the warming.

1.What is the relationship between the rise in temperature and the butterfly appearance?

A.They are linked in a difficult way.

B.They are related in a cause-and-effect way.

C.They have a direct relationship with each other.

D.They have no connection with each other.

2.Why were the researchers confident about their finding?

A.They had used the most advanced equipment in the world.

B.Their finding got support from the textbooks.

C.The results of their study is based on expert judgement.

D.Their experiment proved their previous guessing.

3.What does the underlined part "The knock-on effect" in paragraph 4 mean?

A.The effect caused by the thing that happened before.

B.The effect of things that happened at the same time.

C.The effect of one thing causing the other long after.

D.The effect of one thing causing the other quickly.

4.What can be inferred from the text?

A.The exact reason for Melbourne's temperature rise is very clear.

B.Climate models cannot exactly show climate change in history.

C.The timing of the butterfly appearance will be earlier with increased warming.

D.The rise in temperature decides the possibility of natural weather events.

高一英语阅读选择中等难度题

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